Is cinema doomed?

So far, 2023 has not been a good year for the box office. We've had a whole bunch of exciting films make their debut in cinemas, and yet, very few have become actual hits. We're now halfway through the year, and only one film has surpassed the billion dollar mark globally, with many struggling to even generate half a billion dollars during their entire theatrical runs. With the way that the film industry is changing, it's led me to ponder whether cinema is doomed, and I'm trending to believe it might be.

To get the gist of the film landscape for 2023, all you have to do is look at how much money each film this year has generated in theatres. Aside from the behemoth that is {The Super Mario Bros. Movie}, none have even got near to $1 billion, with the next closest being {Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3}. So, what changed? Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, we've seen the way that viewers like to consume their content shifting considerably. The days of watching the biggest blockbuster at the theatre have passed, as many viewers are more than comfortable with waiting an extra couple of months for these movies to land on streamers. Add to this ballooning production costs and more savvy viewers, and it's clear that cinema can and will not survive unless something changes.

The ballooning box office

Before the pandemic, cinema was at an all-time high. People were flocking to theatres to catch the latest flicks, so much so that between 2015 and 2019 there was an average of five billion dollar movies per annum - with 2019 even offering up nine billion earners. In that short five-year span, 27 (!) movies surpassed that mega threshold. As a point of comparison, there has only ever been 52 billion dollar movies in history. When you start factoring in the number of movies that got close to the billion mark as well, the level of cinema-fandom just becomes even more clear.

"In 2019, Disney had eight of the nine billion dollar earners, with three being from Marvel Studios, two being animated films, another live-action remake, and a Star Wars."

But then the world shut down due to Coronavirus. Production companies had to adjust to a world where cinemas were not widely accessible, and this led to movies forsaking physical launches for that of digital premieres on streaming services. Needless to say, {Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, HBO}, and all the other streamers ended up raking in boatloads of viewers. After a lengthy span without physical premieres, the pandemic came to an end and theatres became the way to watch the latest blockbusters again, yet this didn't see a return to pre-Covid form. Since the pandemic, there have been five billion dollar movies, and in 2023 alone, a lot of major flicks are struggling (or rather have already failed) to recoup their production costs.

Rise of streamers

There's no denying that streamers have been a part of this failed return to form for cinema. Why spend money on a cinema ticket when you can watch the same film as part of the streaming subscription you already pay for? Pre-Covid, it used to take months and months before a movie made its DVD/Blu-ray release, and then often years before coming to a streamer. In today's market, it's usually a month or two before leaving the cinema and landing on a streamer. For example, there are rumours that {The Flash} will be available on streaming platforms on July 18, just over a month after its premiere.

Then there's the patterns of a modern day consumer to take into account. Sure, you could hop in the car or walk to your local cinema, sit through 20 minutes of trailers, before finally getting to watch the film at predetermined times. Or alternatively, you can wait a little while and then watch the same film on your phone while sitting on the toilet - not that I've ever done that... Cinema is no longer the best, or rather most convenient, way to watch blockbusters and the recent pattern of box office data proves that.

Production budgets are out of control

The solution is just to commit to sending films to streamers then, right? Streamers don't rake in the cash for production companies like cinemas do, meaning films will need to have smaller budgets to accommodate this. Unfortunately however, for the blockbusters of today, a smaller budget isn't something that can be afforded either, as special effects, animations, props and physical effects, sets, massive crews, expensive A-list actors, travel costs, and more, all mean that movies cost an absolute fortune to make. For a point of reference, it's been reported that {Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny} had a production budget of a staggering $295 million. The really gut-wrenching part is that this doesn't usually also account for the mega marketing costs for a blockbuster film, which often sees the total budget doubling. Essentially, for Indy 5 to be a "success" the movie will need to earn a good $600 million at the global box office, something only three films have done so far in 2023.

The ballooned cost of film production isn't something that only affects blockbusters either, as indie films are becoming increasingly expensive to boot, and as is the trend for the box office as of late, struggle to recoup their costs as well. Take Ari Aster's latest flick {Beau is Afraid}. This movie was produced and bankrolled by A24, a production house that was slowly becoming the king of indies, if you will. Well, {Beau is Afraid} cost $35 million to make (minus marketing), and yet failed to even make $11 million back in cinemas. Will this film manage to generate tens of millions of dollars from streaming deals? Probably not, making the film a flop from a financial perspective and putting the strain on indie production companies to be even more careful with what they greenlight and create.

Audiences are becoming wiser

In the pre-pandemic era, audiences would flock to cinemas to watch nearly anything. Franchises were king and so were remakes. In 2019, the highest grossing film was {Avengers: Endgame}, but what was second? The live-action {The Lion King}, which to this date is the ninth highest grossing film of all-time. In fact, in 2019, Disney had eight of the nine billion dollar earners, with three being from {Marvel Studios} ({Endgame}, {Spider-Man: Far From Home}, and {Captain Marvel}), two being animated films ({Frozen II} and {Toy Story 4}), another live-action remake ({Aladdin}), and a {Star Wars} ({Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker}). Since that year, only one {Marvel} film has crossed a billion dollars ({Spider-Man: No Way Home}), Pixar is struggling to find its feet, {Star Wars} is at a theatrical impasse, and live-action remakes are being torn to shreds by fans before they even get close to premiering. Why? Because audiences don't want to spend their money on the same thing they have been consuming for years.

The main issue is that this lack of interest to return to cinemas is becoming a problem for original projects as well. {John Wick: Chapter 4} had a massive premiere and recouped its production cost and then some but earned less than $430 million, {Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves} went down great with critics but barely surpassed $200 million globally, Pixar's latest original IP, {Elemental}, will be lucky to even crack the $200 million mark itself. And these are just the "more successful" movies of the year. History has seemingly already forgotten about {65}, {Cocaine Bear}, {Air}, {The Pope's Exorcist}, {Knock at the Cabin}, {Renfield}, {No Hard Feelings}, {Asteroid City}, and a whole collection of interesting, original works that have, or still are, fighting tooth and nail to get a whiff of $100 million at the box office.

Will cinema recover?

With such a miserable year so far, the question is will cinema recover and return to where it once was? I can't see it happening. There will always be a few films that debut and earn one or two billion dollars and make everyone believe that cinema is alive and well, but if the smaller projects can't serve as the base for theatres around the world, there simply won't be a place for these blockbusters to air in the first place. And this greatly saddens me. The cinema is a wonderful place, the best place for that matter to catch the latest movies. As convenient and simple as streamers and watching content on your phone is, it cannot replace a massive 40-foot screen with booming surround sound audio that makes your entire body shake.

We're at a turning point for the film industry, and while I hope we can get back to the pre-pandemic levels of success and thrill, I think the days of theatres and cinemas as we know them are over. Retrofitting a quote from my favourite {The Lord of the Rings} character, Gothmog the Orc, "the age of cinema is over, the time of the streamer has come."